Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
