Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
